How Microsoft is going to lose its leverage in the PC industry

Note: This is all from memory; I will try to get around to looking up exact details with sources some other time.

If you look at the history of the personal computer industry, starting when Apple created the Apple I, you will notice it starts with a bunch of companies trying to push their proprietary hardware and software. From what I know (however I was born in 1987, so I’m still young), throughout the 1980s, personal computers were very complicated and required a lot of additional support to even be remotely useful. There was not really a single platform for software companies to develop on, or even the hardware to support such a platform. Then IBM finally started to get in the game, and by using MS-DOS as the operating system, an industry standard was born.

There were a bunch of IBM clones, but the IBM brand kept IBM with a lions share of the market place. (How many times can I use IBM in a sentence?) Next, along comes Windows 3.0 and Intel processors, and you are left with the “Wintel” era, which means the actual hardware of the PC became a commodity, and this drove prices down. However, Intel and Microsoft were (and still are) sitting pretty, because it does not matter who makes the hardware as long as the hardware runs Windows (and if you wanted your hardware to sell, you better be damn sure to run Windows on it).

In the mix, Dell (obviously running Windows and using Intel) came out and took over the industry. IBM simply could not compete, and by the end of the 1990s, I believe they were around a 7% market share. Along with this, computer hardware prices continued to decline.

So, how is Microsoft going to lose its leverage in the PC industry? You’ve probably heard of cloud computing and the wonders that go with it. The idea is eventually all you will need is a web browser to access your applications, media, data, etc. A web browser does not require Windows. Because of this, I think we will see a shift back to innovative hardware and computer design. As long as that computer (or more likely, laptop/netbook/small portable thing) can run a web browser, you will be able to access your piece of the cloud. Access to your data should be device neutral.

Here’s a thought for a future business idea: rather than worrying about backing up people’s data, you should look into helping people “back up” their internet connection (aka. how to make redundant internet feasible for the masses).

I try to use as many web applications as possible to replace local applications. I cannot remember the last time I used an email client (like Outlook, Thunderbird, etc.) because Gmail is so awesome and you never have to update it. (Seriously Adobe, I swear you want me to update Adobe Reader at least once per week.)

But, I also might just be talking out of my ass, so keep that in mind. However, I would really like to hear your thoughts, so please comment away.

Originally published at www.fakeweblog.com on February 23, 2010.